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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.